Checking The Numbers: Relievers & The Value Of Perfect Information

One of the most interesting aspects of baseball transactions is that every move carries a certain level of risk. Without perfect information akin to an extreme level of accurate prognostication, teams can never be 100 percent certain how a player will perform. The best investment is a player who will produce at a very high level, but who comes as close to guaranteeing that high level of production as possible. Albert Pujols personifies this idea, as a bad season for him still involves above-average defense and a TAv north of .310. I will say right now, with as much confidence as I have in my mind and body, that Pujols will hit, at worst, .310/.370/.530 next season. He has proven himself capable of production far beyond that slash line and is as close to a sure thing as we have.

Baseball Prospectus

Rider, Slurve, & Titantic

Since PITCHf/x day one, I have been thinking about how to accurately label each pitch thrown. MLBAM's Ross Paul came up in 2008 with a solution that does the job (fairly well) in real time, but when people write articles about a single pitcher (or a small number of them), they usually perform their own ad hoc classification.

The Hardball Times

Rays Don't Offer Arbitration To Russ Springer

Left-hander Brian Shouse and catcher Gregg Zaun were both offered salary arbitration Tuesday night, but the team did not offer arbitration to right-hander Russ Springer.

Rays Official Site

Prospectus Today: Pen Man Free Agents Review

I've ordered the relievers the same way I ordered players in the first three pieces in this series. With that said, variance really swamps the difference between any couple of places here, so don't get too caught up in one guy being listed above another. Have a happy Thanksgiving!

Baseball Prospectus

Jason Isringhausen Files For Free Agency, Rays Decline Option On Brian Shouse

Jason Isringhausen filed for free agency on Monday, making him the sixth Rays player to become a free agent this offseason.

Rays Official Site

Russ Springer Files For Free Agency

Rays relievers Chad Bradford and Russ Springer filed for free agency on Friday, the second day that eligible players could officially declare their intentions to test the market.

Rays Official Site

Troy Percival Update

Though nothing is definite, RHP Troy Percival may not be ready to retire.

Maddon said he met with the veteran closer, who plans to work with a chiropractor in California and improve the health of his throwing arm.

That's the first priority, Maddon said, and after that, Percival will ponder returning. When Percival was put on the disabled list, Maddon said he wouldn't have been surprised if the closer retired, and that still seems likely.

But it sounds as if Percival will see how his body responds before making a call. Percival, 39, was in uniform Sunday, hanging out in the dugout.

"I don't think he's counted himself out yet," LHP J.P. Howell said. "He's still working out. I think maybe we'll see how he is in a month or so. Maybe he can come back. … He's had this time off, he's saying, 'Maybe I can give this one more push here.' And I think he can."

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Little further down the Rays signed Gary Gaetti's son Joe, who was released earlier last week, and assigned him to Double-A Montgomery.

St. Petersburg Times

Art Howe Playing Role In Moneyball Movie

That season will be celebrated on the big screen in 2011, when Steven Soderbergh's "Moneyball" movie is released - with Brad Pitt playing Oakland general manager Billy Beane but many of the other principals playing themselves. Former Oakland manager Art Howe is on board, as are pitching coach Rick Peterson, several scouts, ex-scouting director Grady Fuson and first baseman Scott Hatteberg.

SF Gate

A Look Back At The 1st Round Of The 1996 Draft

Once upon a time, Kris Benson was Stephen Strasburg. No, really.

Beyond The Boxscore

Crazy Scoring Streaks

I was playing around with Baseball Reference's indispensable P-I tool, looking for teams that had the longest streaks of scoring four runs or more in a game. There have been three streaks of 20 or more games since 1954: The '94 Indians (23), the '77 Red Sox (21), and the '85 Royals (20). The top streak in the National League came in 2007, courtesy of the Cincinnati Reds in 2007.

The Hardball Times

Rays Deciding On Jason Isringhausen, Most Likely Won't Accept Reassignment To Minors

Someone might say Isringhausen, 36, still needs some fine-tuning after last season's elbow surgery. That his best years are behind him, and it's still too soon to know whether his arm will hold up. So Isringhausen is out, except …
St. Petersburg Times

Rays manager Joe Maddon arrived in Fort Myers close to game time Tuesday due to discussions held in Port Charlotte, Fla., regarding the team's Opening Day roster.
Rays Official Site

Tony LaRussa Expects Longtime Closer Jason Isringhausen To Help Rays

RHP Jason Isringhausen hasn't thrown in a game for the Rays yet, but manager Joe Maddon said the veteran closer, like RHP Troy Percival, is progressing well from surgery and "could be very impactful this season."

St. Petersburg Times

Jason Isringhausen Signs With Tampa Bay

The St. Louis Cardinals all-time save leader Jason Isringhausen finalized a minor-league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays this evening, the closer just confirmed. He met with the Rays team doctor this afternoon and had a complete checkup before being invited to camp to compete for a spot in the bullpen as Troy Percival’s setup man and possible understudy.
Cardinal Beat

The Rays have signed former All-Star closer Jason Isringhausen to a minor-league deal.
St. Petersburg Times

The Rays' bullpen competition got more intense Friday night when they signed Jason Isringhausen to a Minor League deal. Isringhausen will be in camp Saturday.
Rays Official Site

A couple of years ago, 300-save closer Troy Percival came to the Cardinals to restart his career in Jason Isringhausen's bullpen. Now Percival, Tampa Bay's closer, gets to return the favor.
STL Today

St. Louis Cardinals all-time saves leader Jason Isringhausen joins the Tampa Bay Rays for 2009 on a minor league contract.
The Birdhouse

Troy Percival's Rehab Going Well

Meanwhile, closer Troy Percival will be trying to come back from surgery performed in December to eradicate the recurring back problem he suffered from during the second half of the 2008 season.

"Things are progressing very well [with Percival]," said Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. "His rehab is going well. He's going to come down here in the next day or so. Until we get a chance to see him firsthand and get our hands on him, it's always a difficult thing to say. But he's thrown off the mound a couple of times and has reported that he feels great. So we'll get him into camp and monitor what he is doing, and probably won't get a real accurate sense until the second week of March or so."

Rays Official Site

Joe Nelson's Deal With Rays Official

The Rays officially announced the signing of right-hander Joe Nelson on Tuesday.

Rays Official Site

Freebies?: The Search For Good, Cheap Relief

Game Five of the 2008 World Series will long be remembered for its umpires' Beatles-inspired belief that, as John Lennon sang, "When it starts to rain, everything's the same," a philosophy which prevented sundry sodden millionaires (and Carlos Ruiz) from seeking shelter until the middle of the sixth.

Baseball Prospectus

Ready To Roll The Dice In Las Vegas

Listed as trading chips to watch: Rick Ankiel & Ryan Ludwick

ESPN

Exploring The Orioles' Trade Options

Baltimore Sun