Checking The Numbers: Relievers & The Value Of Perfect Information

One of the most interesting aspects of baseball transactions is that every move carries a certain level of risk. Without perfect information akin to an extreme level of accurate prognostication, teams can never be 100 percent certain how a player will perform. The best investment is a player who will produce at a very high level, but who comes as close to guaranteeing that high level of production as possible. Albert Pujols personifies this idea, as a bad season for him still involves above-average defense and a TAv north of .310. I will say right now, with as much confidence as I have in my mind and body, that Pujols will hit, at worst, .310/.370/.530 next season. He has proven himself capable of production far beyond that slash line and is as close to a sure thing as we have.

Baseball Prospectus