Bill (New Mexico): With the benefit of hindsight, and the usual caveats that the post season is basically a crapshoot, how do you think the Cardinals' decision to trade half of their farm system for possible rentals worked out? Did they get enough value from Holliday and DeRosa (we will not speak of Khalil Greene...) to justify the depletion of the farm?
Christina Kahrl: I think it's important not to overstate the penalty of what was a sensible aggressiveness in trying to win now. Chris Carpenter was healthy, after all, and how often does that happen? Then, to take the less-charitable view of what they dealt, what is it that they really gave up? If Brett Wallace winds up a first baseman, he was only a bargaining chip for them, and Mortensen and Peterson won't be franchise-breaking deletions from the nest. To get DeRosa, they gave up two live relief arms, yes, but relievers aren't exactly the most reliable commodities. I guess I'm just not quite sure why this is seen as a huge setback--there's a lot of doubt about Wallace's ability to play third, and the rest of the packages involved the kinds of guys good organizations have on hand to employ or trade, as needed.
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uptick (St. Louis): Hey Christina -- you still owe us a trip to St. Louis sometime...so when are you coming? :)
Christina Kahrl: Man, do I ever, and I'm still looking forward to it. I expect to do more traveling next season, and you can bet that St. Louis is atop the list of desired destinations, both for the book tour and for regular-season fun.
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The Flying Bernard (Acton, MA): How valuable do you think Matt Holliday is right now? I'm still not convinced he can be a star outside of Coors Field. Lots of people seem very high on him after his great numbers in 270 plate appearances with St. Louis, but he spent 400 plate appearances doing nothing special in Oakland.
Christina Kahrl: I'm with you, in that I'm a bit skittish about getting wild and paying out a five-year deal that might rate push towards the nine-digit range in total value. He peaked with an EqA in the .320 range at the expected time; now, heading into his thirties and perhaps more properly down around .300 from year to year, there's no way I get that crazy.
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Bill (New Mexico): Thanks for the Holliday/DiRosa answer; now a followup. Will Khalil Greene ever be able to find major-league employment again? What kind of team might/should be willing to take a chance on him after this year?
Christina Kahrl: Historically, baseball hasn't been kind to the men who struggle with their own demons, whether we want to talk about Alex Johnson or Dontrelle Willis or Tony Horton. Will someone take a chance on Greene? Yes, somebody will; shortstops who hit for power don't grow on trees, and somebody's going to want to see if he can do one or both things ever again. But you can bet that whatever offers he gets this winter are going to be after a few interviews and evaluations, and will probably involve some unique provisions. My hope is that he beats this, and simply plays. Well or badly, I hope he simply gets to play, and leave on his own terms at some distant point in the future.
Baseball Prospectus
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