In Part One of this series, I updated my model for projecting BABIP with new 2009 data, and in Part Two, I explained what makes BABIP Superstars and BABIP Trouble-Makers. In this final part, I will discuss some of the hitters where my Expected BABIP (E-BABIP) projections and PECOTA’s BABIP projections differ most, and discuss which number you might want to trust. PECOTA incorporates a lot of information that my model simply does not, but the batted-ball information can be particularly important for certain hitters, and those are the ones where you should place some faith in E-BABIP.
Baseball Prospectus
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