Matt (Chicago): In his ultimate fantasy draft article, Nate wrote of Pujols: "The tiebreaker used against him was the fact of the high-grade ligament tear in his elbow, which Pujols opted not to have surgery on before the season. There is perhaps a 50:50 chance that the ligament will blow out at some point over the course of the next several seasons, which would require Pujols to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss at least a full season." Just curious as to (a) where that 50:50 number comes from, and (b) whether a position player (and in particular a first baseman) would require the same recovery time (a full season, give or take) as a pitcher.
Will Carroll: I think 50/50 is about right. He's had it for ... four years? Thing is, it was probably 50/50 that whole time, so is it like rolling the dice every season or a bit more wear? Is it scarring up? The full season number is a bit off, though it depends on when it happens. If Pujols went to get it done today, he'd be ready for Opening Day. If he did it on Opening Day, he'd miss the season. We've had several players have TJ and they tend to come back quickly. There was a Dback who did it in four months and I'm blanking on his name. Not Luis Gonzalez, but he came back well.
With Pujols, the elbow worries me less than his feet do. Plantar fasciitis is no joke and surgery to fix that would cost him a lot more time.
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Rick (Chicago): So assuming the Cardinals miss the playoffs, Pujols would probably be smart to get the surgery the first week of October so that he can be on the field next May and have the problem fixed?
Will Carroll: Given his results this season (and every season of his career), why would you change anything? What if TJ changed something and he lost power? Unless and until Pujols HAS to have the surgery, I don't think you do it. Or until he decides he wants to. In that case, the smart thing to do is shut him down the second you decide the Cards are out of it and buy a couple weeks. Of course, that would kill my fantasy team ...
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rawagman (Toronto): Will, can Scott Rolen ever be expected to regain some of his former power? Thanks
Will Carroll: At this stage, no I don't think so. Degenerative shoulder and age are a bad combo.
Baseball Propsectus
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