Thursday, September 24, 2009

Joe Sheehan Chat 9-24-09

thelaird (Memphis, TN): I've been having a debate with a friend over a sacrifice bunt in Sunday's Cardinals/Cubs game. Quick recap: bottom of the 9th, tie game with no outs, a runner on first, DeRosa at bat, and Pujols on deck. A sacrifice bunt takes the bat out of Pujols' hands, so the question is this: is it better to have Holliday and Ludwick bat with a runner on 2nd or DeRosa, Pujols, and Holliday bat with a runner on 1st?

Joe Sheehan: Because DeRosa is a slow right-handed batter who puts the ball on the ground, a bunt is defensible, even though it takes the bat out of Pujols' hands. My problem comes in when the bunt is laid down by someone like Johnny Damon, who isn't going to hit into two. Swing the bat.

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jalonzo (NYC): Do Dave Duncan's pitching philosophy, and every St. Louis pitcher behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, lead Secret Sauce to underestimate the Cards' playoff chances?

Joe Sheehan: I think the idea that any team is better than an 18-20% chance to win the World Series overestimates everyone's playoff chances. Secret Sauce is what it is, a formula based on the track record of successful teams. Everyone's favorite team not rated well by it is the exception.

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tonipeluso (Oakland): Should Oakland try for a Fielder in a trade?

Joe Sheehan: You have to build a roster from the middle out. No team with that kind of up-the-middle should spend prospects and cash on a first baseman, and in retrospect, I should have said that about the Matt Holliday trade.

Baseball Prospectus

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