ericturner29 (Chicago): It seems that in a few years, Omar Vizquel will join Rusty Staub and Harold Baines as the only guys with 11,000 PAs who are not in the HOF. My loose understanding of the argument against Omar is that while his counting and rate stats compare favorably with the Wiz, after adjusting for eras he comes out a little short offensively (84 OPS+ to 87), but the big difference is defense. Apparently the gulf between their defensive abilities was so great that Ozzie was a 90%+ slam dunk inner-circle type of election, and Omar isn't even a bubble guy. Two questions: Was Ozzie overvalued when he went in, and if not can you shine some light on the defensive differences? Thanks
Jay Jaffe: Ozzie Smith's defensive excellence is well-supported by the numbers, as systems such as WARP and Win Shares both love him. Vizquel is more of a mixed bag. The current iteration of WARP most definitely does NOT love him, but I suspect that the forthcoming play-by-play based system will correct that somewhat; his pbp-based UZR numbers eyeball as pretty decent.
Beyond that it's worth noting that Ozzie does have an advantage over Omar with the stick, via a .261 EQA to .254. IN terms of Batting Runs Above Average, the difference is about 100 runs.
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Nick Stone (New York, NY): With the news that Posada might not be as healthy as hoped, the Yankees' need for a viable back-up catcher has become more urgent. What are their options, considering that they are reportedly willing to part with Nady?
Jay Jaffe: Hey Nick! Good question, as there's no doubt that the Yanks need to do a better job of protecting against Posada's absence than they've done in the past. Now that Brad Ausmus is off the market (my hand should be healed by the end of spring training, thanks), the best available option on the free agent market is the one that Joe Girardi spent two months kicking in the head last year -- Pudge Rodriguez. He was enjoying a bit of a rebound before he started rotting on the Yankee bench in favor of Jose Frakkin' Molina.
On the trade market, I'm not sure if anyone's gonna give up much of a catcher for Nady, but I wonder if a youngster with upside like Jeff Clement, Bryan Anderson or even J.R. Towles could be pried loose with a package involving, say, Ian Kennedy. I'm a horrible matchmaker when it comes to prospect-based trades -- it's why Brian Cashman doesn't take my calls.
Baseball Prospectus
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