Bill (New Mexico): As regards "figuring out the WHY," what's your take on why/how St. Louis is overperforming so much?
Jay Jaffe: The Cards have done a great job with a rotation that's largely retreads, converted relievers, and booger-eating spazzes, guys like Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer into solid contributors. Credit Dave Duncan, who was able to get enough out of Jeff Weaver to bring home an unlikely World Championship while every other team that's had him since Detroit has been bitterly disappointed. The bottom line is that the Cards aren't beating themselves - they're second in the NL in fewest walks allowed even while running second-to-last in strikeouts.
The other thing that's noteworthy is the way Tony LaRussa has pieced together his outfield. I'm not the biggest TLR fan in the world, and I'm still a little skeptical that guys like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker can keep it up for a full year, but this is hardly the 70-something win team I foresaw.
Baseball Prospectus
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